Applies a Bayesian haircut to a bid valuation for common-value auctions where winning is itself evidence the bidder over-estimated. Takes a raw valuation, a value-type classification (commonvalue / privatevalue / mixed), the number of informed bidders N, and a signal-dispersion estimate, and returns an adjusted valuation. Domain-neutral and reusable across fantasy FAAB, prediction markets, M&A bids, ad-auction budgets, and any generic bidding context. Use when user mentions "winner's curse", "common value auction", "valuation haircut", "adverse valuation", "Bayesian bid adjustment", or "over-paying in auction".
EnglishGenerate a concise 4-5 page equity research earnings preview for a single company.
EnglishInterface Craft by Josh Puckett — a toolkit for building polished, animated interfaces in React. Includes Storyboard Animation (human-readable animation DSL with stage-driven sequencing), DialKit (live control panels for tuning animation values), and Design Critique (systematic UI review based on Josh Puckett's methodology). Triggers on: animate, animation, transition, storyboard, entrance, motion, spring, easing, timing, dialkit, sliders, controls, tune, tweak, critique, review, feedback, audit, improve, polish, refine, redesign.
EnglishGiven a current win probability and a downside asymmetry flag, recommends a variance-seeking, neutral, or variance-minimizing posture and emits a numeric multiplier (typically 0.8-1.3) for downstream consumers to apply to boom-bust scores, position sizes, or bet sizes. Favorites minimize variance; underdogs maximize it. Reusable across fantasy sports lineup construction, portfolio allocation, poker bankroll decisions, racing strategy, and any decision where the agent controls a variance knob. Use when user mentions variance strategy, underdog variance, variance seeking, variance minimizing, risk posture, boom bust, must-win variance, favorite strategy, or when a decision module needs a single scalar to bias toward or away from high-variance options.
EnglishIncludes Auction Winners Curse Haircut, Earnings Preview Single, Interface Craft, and other workflows.
Supported by the Atlas install prompt. Skill-specific requirements vary.
Pack stats
What’s included
Auction Winners Curse Haircut
Applies a Bayesian haircut to a bid valuation for common-value auctions where winning is itself evidence the bidder over-estimated. Takes a raw valuation, a value-type classification (commonvalue / privatevalue / mixed), the number of informed bidders N, and a signal-dispersion estimate, and returns an adjusted valuation. Domain-neutral and reusable across fantasy FAAB, prediction markets, M&A bids, ad-auction budgets, and any generic bidding context. Use when user mentions "winner's curse", "common value auction", "valuation haircut", "adverse valuation", "Bayesian bid adjustment", or "over-paying in auction".
Earnings Preview Single
Generate a concise 4-5 page equity research earnings preview for a single company. Analyzes the most recent earnings transcript, competitor landscape, valuation, and rece
Interface Craft
Interface Craft by Josh Puckett — a toolkit for building polished, animated interfaces in React. Includes Storyboard Animation (human-readable animation DSL with stage-driven sequencing), DialKit (live control panels for tuning animation values), and Design Critique (systematic UI review based on Josh Puckett's methodology). Triggers on: animate, animation, transition, storyboard, entrance, motion, spring, easing, timing, dialkit, sliders, controls, tune, tweak, critique, review, feedback, audit, improve, polish, refine, redesign.
Variance Strategy Selector
Given a current win probability and a downside asymmetry flag, recommends a variance-seeking, neutral, or variance-minimizing posture and emits a numeric multiplier (typically 0.8-1.3) for downstream consumers to apply to boom-bust scores, position sizes, or bet sizes. Favorites minimize variance; underdogs maximize it. Reusable across fantasy sports lineup construction, portfolio allocation, poker bankroll decisions, racing strategy, and any decision where the agent controls a variance knob. Use when user mentions variance strategy, underdog variance, variance seeking, variance minimizing, risk posture, boom bust, must-win variance, favorite strategy, or when a decision module needs a single scalar to bias toward or away from high-variance options.
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Use the Auction Winners Curse Haircut skill to help with my task.
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