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Think Fermi Estimation

Agent skill
1 skill

Produces a Fermi decomposition worksheet that estimates an unknown numeric quantity by factoring it into a chain of order-of-magnitude sub-estimates, guessing each to within a band, then multiplying back to a point estimate plus a compounded low/high range, with an independence check and a dominant-uncertainty flag. Use when you need a number and no lookup-able data or genuine reference class exists, so the magnitude has to be built from factors (for example sizing a market, a load, a cost, or a conversion you cannot look up). Not for forecasting from real base rates (use reference-class-forecasting) or decomposing a question for coverage with no number (use issue-tree).

Install with
Claude CodeCodexCursorGitHub CopilotGemini CLI

Supported by the Atlas install prompt. Skill-specific requirements vary.

Skill stats

Skills1CategoryGrowth & marketingStars0

About this skill

Produces a Fermi decomposition worksheet that estimates an unknown numeric quantity by factoring it into a chain of order-of-magnitude sub-estimates, guessing each to within a band, then multiplying back to a point estimate plus a compounded low/high range, with an independence check and a dominant-uncertainty flag. Use when you need a number and no lookup-able data or genuine reference class exists, so the magnitude has to be built from factors (for example sizing a market, a load, a cost, or a conversion you cannot look up). Not for forecasting from real base rates (use reference-class-forecasting) or decomposing a question for coverage with no number (use issue-tree).

Quick start

  1. Copy the install prompt. Use the green button above this README.
  2. Send it to your agent. Paste it into your coding agent’s chat and send.
  3. Review the setup. Your agent checks the skill’s instructions, requirements, and installation scope.
Review, license & listing details
Review the source before using this skill

This is an imported listing. We haven’t certified its safety, license, or compatibility. Skills may include executable scripts.

Automated security scan: Partial

Only SKILL.md was scanned. Supporting files and scripts were not checked. No safety grade has been assigned.

0 potential findings · Scanned 11/4/2026 · Scanner 0.2.1

Content SHA-256: 94b7704bb0652ae31cef9c3019d7abc5b1e4e794a2d7c45a99d11a28f3376d04

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About this listing

Category
Growth & marketing
Reported license
Apache-2.0
Listing language (estimated)
English
Review status
Not individually reviewed
Agent compatibility
Atlas installation supports Claude Code, Codex, and Cursor. Skill-specific dependencies and features are checked during setup.