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Reference Class Forecasting

Agent skill
1 skill

Anchors predictions in historical reality by identifying a class of similar past events and using their statistical frequency as a baseline (outside view) before analyzing case-specific details. Use when starting a forecast, establishing base rates, testing "this time is different" claims, or when user mentions reference classes, outside view, base rates, or starting a new prediction.

Install with
Claude CodeCodexCursorGitHub CopilotGemini CLI

Supported by the Atlas install prompt. Skill-specific requirements vary.

Skill stats

Skills1CategoryScience & researchStars0

About this skill

Anchors predictions in historical reality by identifying a class of similar past events and using their statistical frequency as a baseline (outside view) before analyzing case-specific details. Use when starting a forecast, establishing base rates, testing "this time is different" claims, or when user mentions reference classes, outside view, base rates, or starting a new prediction.

Quick start

  1. Copy the install prompt. Use the green button above this README.
  2. Send it to your agent. Paste it into your coding agent’s chat and send.
  3. Review the setup. Your agent checks the skill’s instructions, requirements, and installation scope.
Review, license & listing details
Review the source before using this skill

This is an imported listing. We haven’t certified its safety, license, or compatibility. Skills may include executable scripts.

Automated security scan: Partial

Only SKILL.md was scanned. Supporting files and scripts were not checked. No safety grade has been assigned.

0 potential findings · Scanned 11/4/2026 · Scanner 0.2.1

Content SHA-256: 0f799f5ae5cb7362c63b3f1ae315ed60c1e2bc07f7ae2389e8f3e2eea1d8ec44

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About this listing

Category
Science & research
Reported license
Not specified
Listing language (estimated)
English
Review status
Not individually reviewed
Agent compatibility
Atlas installation supports Claude Code, Codex, and Cursor. Skill-specific dependencies and features are checked during setup.
Reference Class Forecasting | Agent Skills Atlas