Claude Code
Codex
Cursor
GitHub Copilot
Gemini CLIAbout this skill
Use when uncertainty must be updated after new evidence: start with a prior or base rate, estimate how strongly the evidence fits each hypothesis, update to a posterior, and decide what evidence would change the belief next. Covers priors, base rates, likelihood ratios, posterior odds, calibration, evidence independence, false positives in rare events, and base-rate neglect. Do NOT use for decomposing assumptions to primitives (use first-principles-thinking), tracing downstream consequences (use second-order-thinking), recurring issue clustering (use pattern-recognition), or formal source-to-claim citation (use epistemic-grounding).
Quick start
- Copy the install prompt. Use the green button above this README.
- Send it to your agent. Paste it into your coding agent’s chat and send.
- Review the setup. Your agent checks the skill’s instructions, requirements, and installation scope.
Review, license & listing details
This is an imported listing. We haven’t certified its safety, license, or compatibility. Skills may include executable scripts.
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About scan coverage and limitationsAbout this listing
- Category
- Science & research
- Reported license
- CC-BY-4.0
- Listing language (estimated)
- English
- Review status
- Not individually reviewed
- Agent compatibility
- Atlas installation supports Claude Code, Codex, and Cursor. Skill-specific dependencies and features are checked during setup.